Posterior Probability


The posterior probability of an event is the probability of the event computed following the collection of new data. One begins with a prior probability of an event and revises it in the light of new data. For example, if 0.01 of a population has schizophrenia then the probability that a person drawn at random would have schizophrenia is 0.01. This is the prior probability. If you then learn that that their score on a personality test suggests the person is schizophrenic, you would adjust your probability accordingly. The adjusted probability is the posterior probability.

 

See also: Bayes’ Theorem.