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    30. Predicting Present and Future Affect
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  21. Calculators
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  Predicting Present and Future Affect

Research conducted by: Karim S. Kassam, Daniel T. Gilbert, Andrew Boston, and Timothy D. Wilson

Case study prepared by: Robert F. Houser and Georgette Baghdady

Overview
In Aesop's fable, "The Ant and the Grasshopper," an ant toils all summer to gather food for the winter while a grasshopper sunbathes and enjoys the present abundance of food without concern for the upcoming winter. Consequently when winter arrives, the grasshopper despairs that it has no food. The moral of the fable is that it is best to prepare for the days of necessity. Clearly the grasshopper failed to predict accurately how it would feel in the winter while it sunbathed with a full belly in the summer.

The authors of this study explored the intriguing phenomenon of future anhedonia and its relation to the concept of time discounting in order to understand people's predictions about how they might feel when a future event happens. Time discounting occurs when people put less value on future events than present events. Future anhedonia refers to people's mistaken belief that a future event would elicit a less intense affective reaction than if the same event happened in the present. In six experiments, the authors asked participants to predict how happy they would feel both in the present and in the future upon receiving either 20 dollars outright or 25 dollars in the form of a Starbucks coffeehouse gift card. The difference between the scores of present and future happiness is a measure of future anhedonia.

Questions to Answer
Do people expect their affective reactions to an event to be less intense in the future than in the present?

Design Issues
The monetary amount ($20, $25) may not have been enough to psychologically engage a large number of participants. The wide age range in Experiment 1b of 15 to 72 years is unusual for a psychological study. Also in Experiment 1b, several participants reported that they would pay $25 for a $25-gift card that Starbucks was considering selling at a discounted price, which might indicate that they did not fully understand the question.

Descriptions of Variables
VARIABLE DESCRIPTION
Gender The sex of a participant
Happiness score A participant’s estimate of his/her affective reaction to an event using a 9-point scale with endpoints 1 = “not at all happy” and 9 = “extremely happy”
diff_happy A difference score equal to a participant’s predicted present happiness score for a present event minus his/her predicted future happiness score for the same event in the future.  A positive difference indicates future anhedonia.
diff_money The difference in the maximum amount of money that a participant predicted as his/her willingness to pay in the present minus the predicted amount he/she would pay at a future time for a $25 Starbucks coffeehouse gift card.  A positive difference indicates future anhedonia.
cond Condition: Whether an event was expected or unexpected
today A participant’s predicted present happiness score for a present event
future A participant’s predicted future happiness score for a future event


References

Kassam, K. S., Gilbert, D. T., Boston, A., Wilson, T. D. (2008). Future anhedonia and time discounting. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 44, 1533-1537.

Gilbert, D. T., Wilson, T. D. (2007). Prospection: Experiencing the future. Science, 317, 1351-1354.

 
Links

Kassam et al. article
Aesop's Fable: The Ant and the Grasshopper
Prospection: Experiencing the Future


Exercises
Please read the Kassam et al. article before performing the exercises. For all analyses, statistical significance is based on p<0.05.

In Experiment 1b, the authors found that the participants predicted they would feel happier in the present than in the future upon receiving a $25 Starbucks coffeehouse gift card.
  1. Examine the frequency distribution below showing the difference in predicted happiness scores (diff_happy) between the present and future scenarios. A positive value means that a participant predicted experiencing greater happiness in the present than in the future upon receiving the gift card.

    diff_happy Freq Percent Cum
    -2
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4
    8    		 1
    42
    4
    8
    4
    5
    1    		 1.54
    64.62
    6.15
    12.31
    6.15
    7.69
    1.54    		 1.54
    66.15
    72.31
    84.62
    90.77
    98.46
    100.00
    Total 65 100.00  

    1. What percentage of participants predicted they would feel the same level of happiness in the future as they would feel in the present upon receiving the gift card?
    2. What percentage of participants displayed future anhedonia?
    3. Is the distribution normal, left-skewed or right-skewed?
  2. Were women or men more likely to predict that their level of happiness would be the same in the future as in the present upon receiving the gift card? Perform a Pearson Chi Square test with the cell counts below. Report your findings.

      Women Men Total  
    No change in happiness score 26 16 42
    Happiness score changes 6 17 23
    Total   32 33 65

In Experiment 1b, the authors also found that the participants predicted they would be willing to pay more for the $25 Starbucks coffeehouse gift card in the present than in the future.

  1. Examine the frequency distribution below showing the difference in the amount of money (diff_money) that the participants predicted they would pay between the present and future scenarios. A positive value means that a participant predicted a willingness to pay more in the present than in the future for the gift card.

    diff_money Freq Percent Cum
    -5
    -1
    0
    .25
    1
    1.5
    1.75
    5
    9.99
    10    		 1
    1
    52
    1
    1
    1
    1
    5
    1
    1    		 1.54
    1.54
    80.00
    1.54
    1.54
    1.54
    1.54
    7.69
    1.54
    1.54    		 1.54
    3.08
    83.08
    84.62
    86.15
    87.69
    89.23
    96.92
    98.46
    100.00
    Total 65 100.00  

    1. What percentage of participants predicted they would pay the same amount of money in the future as they would pay in the present for the gift card?
    2. What percentage of participants displayed future anhedonia?
    3. Is the distribution normal, left-skewed or right-skewed?
  1. Were women or men more likely to predict that they would pay the same amount of money in the future as in the present for the gift card? Perform a Pearson Chi Square test with the cell counts below. Report your findings.

      Women Men Total  
    No change in amount of money 28 24 52
    Amount of money changes 4 9 13
    Total   32 33 65

In Experiment 2b, the authors examined whether expecting a future event could explain why the participants predicted having a less intense reaction to it when it occurs. Here, the event was receiving $20 in the mailbox, today or three months from now.

Dr. David Lane simulated data for the exercises below. The simulation used a number generation algorithm that sampled from normal distributions that were based on the means and standard deviations reported for Experiment 2b in the article. The simulated data will give slightly different statistics, but the same conclusions can be reached.
  1. Perform an independent samples t test comparing the mean happiness score if $20 were received in the mailbox today as expected versus if $20 were received today unexpectedly. Interpret your results.
  2. Perform an independent samples t test comparing the mean happiness score if $20 were received in the mailbox three months from now as expected versus if $20 were received three months from now unexpectedly. Interpret your results.
  3. Confirm the authors' findings of future anhedonia by performing a two-tailed t test for a single mean comparing the mean difference between the scores of present and future happiness (diff_happy) with zero change
    1. Upon receiving $20 as expected.
    2. Upon receiving $20 unexpectedly.
  4. Perform an independent samples t test comparing the variable diff_happy between the expected and unexpected conditions. Was future anhedonia influenced by expectation? Interpret your results.
  5. Design a study where you vary the monetary amount (for example, $20, $50, $100, etc.) and ask participants to predict the intensity of their affective reactions to receiving those dollar amounts in the present and in the future. What would be your study hypothesis regarding the effects on future anhedonia?
  6. Give an example where the phenomenon of future anhedonia might underlie a person's behavior or decision making related to his or her health.